![]() ![]() However, it is important to point out that even the 2021 season experienced a monthlong summer lull until Tropical Storm Fred formed on August 11. With only three named storms so far this year, the season is off to a slower start compared to last year, which had five named storms by this date. This means environmental conditions will become ideal just in time for peak hurricane season. This pattern should result in reduced vertical wind shear.” “Air is forecast to more consistently rise over Africa and sink over the tropical Pacific. “The models are generally forecasting a more conducive pattern for the Atlantic by the time that we get to the middle of August,” Klotzbach reported. The MJO has prohibited thunderstorm development over Africa – important because thunderstorms that form in western Africa tend to flow west into the Atlantic, becoming the building blocks of tropical weather development.įorecasters are confident changes will soon foster an uptick in tropical systems. Saharan dust and dry air have also been key contributors over the last month. As it does so, it can alter levels of vertical wind shear and mid-level moisture.” “The MJO is deep thunderstorm activity that propagates around the globe every about 30 to 60 days. “The Madden-Julian oscillation can either increase or decrease Atlantic hurricane activity,” Klotzbach has said. Meteorologists get key upgrade just in time for 2022 hurricane season Hurricane Larry is shown on satellite imagery in September 2021. While La Niña is certainly a big seasonal driver of how the tropical weather should play out, other phenomena that drive shorter-term variability are also key to updated forecasts. La Niña pattern is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator that consequently impact weather across the world. The world is in a La Niña pattern – a main reason forecasters initially went with above-average hurricane activity estimates early in the season. “When the subtropical Atlantic is cooler than normal, it can sometimes favor increased shear in the tropical Atlantic.” “One reason for reduction in Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast from CSU is due to development of below-normal sea surface temperatures in subtropical Atlantic,” Klotzbach tweeted. These forecasts take into account a lot, such as sea-surface temperatures, La Niña and Saharan dust, and some factors can change quickly. “2021 did have a low period in July, and then after August 11, then we had about 2.4 storms, on average, form every single week.” ![]() “You can get very active years with this kind of lull period,” said Matthew Rosencrans of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the US coastline is now 68%, well above the average of 52% for the past century, according to the Colorado State report. “One reason for (the) reduction in Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast from CSU is due to development of below-normal sea surface temperatures in subtropical Atlantic,” Klotzbach said. Of the 18 total predicted storms – which also include the three names already used this season – eight are expected to become hurricanes, and four are expected to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. The forecast includes the three named storms that have already formed this season: Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Its forecast calls for 14 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), a slight decrease from the seasonal outlook forecast of 14 to 21 released in May. NOAA’s latest projections call for a 60% chance of an above-normal season. “This is especially important as we enter peak hurricane season – the next Ida or Sandy could still be lying in wait.” ![]() “Although it has been a relatively slow start to hurricane season, with no major storms developing in the Atlantic, this is not unusual and we therefore cannot afford to let our guard down,” FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said. ![]() Though this season has been less active until now compared to the last two seasons, NOAA and Colorado State expect it to become the seventh consecutive above-normal hurricane season. This Atlantic hurricane season is still expected to be above-normal, forecasts released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University show. ![]()
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